We want a Lefty not named Lee

The Mets chances of getting Cliff Lee were probably equivalent to King James gracing the Nets with his talents in 2010. So the Tri-State area now needs to shift the focus from getting a star, to a piece that will help a playoff push. Since the Mets supposedly don’t have enough God-like prospects to trade with almighty Seattle (Neither do the Yankees I guess?), the most logical move would be to trade for Ted Lilly. Adding a crafty left-hander to the back of the rotation isn’t too exciting but Lilly would provide depth and allow Takahashi to revive a depleted bullpen.

Let’s get into the numbers for Ted Lilly:
In his last 4 years with Chicago in the National League, Lilly has posted a 3.71 ERA and is 15 games over .500 with the Cubies. Lilly is a fly ball pitcher which explains his rather high, 1.3 HR/9 average. This would work to Lilly’s advantage at Citi Field. I’m sure many balls that sail out at Wrigley Field will barely make the warning track in Flushing. Lilly also doesn’t walk too many batters (2.1 BB/9 in 2010) and gets his share of strikeouts considering his velocities sinking below 90. In 2010 Ted has gone 3-7 but has an ERA that’s better than any one of Ollie Perez, John Maine and Hisanori Takahashi.

Besides the numbers, Ted Lilly would benefit the Mets in a number of ways.

• He is a solid back end of the rotation pitcher.
• Chicago wants to dump salary, they would most likely take a package of average joe minor leaguers in return. This would leave the Mets room to acquire another reliever.
• He is a free agent at the end of the season…
• Best of all, (Drum Roll please) according to MLBTR, Lilly projects as a Type A Free Agent. That means the Mets would receive two supplemental draft picks in return for an aging veteran.

If the price is right, It was be a no-brainer to trade for Ted Lilly than let him walk, take the draft picks and maybe this time next year Seattle will respect at least one New York farm system.

Stats courtesy of baseballreference.com

Did I say Yankees? I Meant Rangers Get Lee

Well, in between leaving work and running 8 miles, Cliff Lee ended up NOT going to the Yankees and instead was dealt to the Rangers, according to Joel Sherman on twitter, as forwarded by Metsblog. 

According to Jon Paul Morosi on twitter the deal is Lee and Mark Lowe for Justin Smoak, Blake Beaven, Josh Lueke and Matt Lawson.  Morosi is also reporting that the Mariners are not paying ALL of Lee's salary, as others are reporting. 

First off, I'm happy it wasn't the Yankees...

Secondly, the thing that jumps out to me is that Seattle isn't paying ALL of Lee's salary, which I think is more shocking to me that they're paying ANY.  I mean, I get that Texas has financial issues.  But they are getting Lee, Lowe and at least SOME of Lee's salary being paid for?  Does that strike anyone besides me as being a very good deal for Texas, even in spite of giving up Smoak?  Oh and on top of Lee, whose numbers are ridiculous (2.34 ERA, 86 Ks and 6 BBs), the Rangers also got Mark Lowe who's not too shabby either putting up a 3.48 ERA. 

Here's more on what Texas is giving up, to get Lee...

Smoak was hitting .209 with 8 homers and 34 RBI with the Rangers this season.  Beavan had a 2.78 ERA with 68 Ks to 12 BBs, while Josh Lueke's ERA was 3.86 as a reliever in Double-A and Matt Lawson was hitting .277 with 7 homers and 34 RBI.

While I think Smoak was a nice get for the Mariners, the Rangers also have Chris Davis who is just as capable as Smoak, and probably has more power potential at the plate.  I would imagine Davis will be brought up to replace Smoak sooner rather than later.  But overall, this is a great deal for the Rangers, and although Seattle got a good return, I just don't know if this was as big a ransom as they had originally hoped for...

Either way, it's time for the Mets to start sniffing a little harder around Ted Lilly, or Fausto Carmona...

Yankees Close To Lee, I'm Close To Pissed

According to Matt Cerrone of Metsblog, here, it looks like the Yankees will be landing Cliff Lee. Cerrone basically cites any and all of the usual suspects in his report (Sherman, Rosenthal, Olney, Price, Davidoff, etc.).  The most recent update lays out the three prospects the Yankees would be giving up, Jesus Montero, David Adams and Zach McCallister.  And I'm pissed...

First off, I hate that the Yankees are getting him.  It's just an embarassment of riches at this point, and honestly, DO THEY EVEN NEED HIM?  The Yankee rotation, should this deal be finalized would be Sabathia, Lee, Hughes, Vazquez, Burnett and Pettite.  That is remarkable.  This would most likely have to involve another move, as I don't think even the Yankees need 6 starters of that caliber.  I mean, this is ridiculous...

As far as the Yankees offer, outside of Montero I know very little about the players involved.  Although Baseball America has Montero as the number 4 rated prospect in baseball, he's having a tough year at the plater hitting only .253 in Triple-A, but does have six homers.  In regards to the other pieces: McCallister has a mid-4 ERA in Triple-A, while David Adams is currently hitting .309 with 3 homers in Double-A.

I guess, at the end of the day the Mariners wanted to fill their need, and get the best player available.  No one the Mets could have offered, short of Niese or Davis, would have had as high an upside as Montero does, and no one would fill Seattle's need for a catcher in the same way.  So, at the end of the day it looks like Seattle will get the catcher they want, but I wonder if they really got enough other pieces for this trade to really have worked out in their favor.

Anyway, I think I am on the Ted Lilly bandwagon now.  Unless the price for Oswalt drops, I would say Lilly would probably be the best option for the Mets not named Oswalt, who can probably be had at a decent price.  Either way, I hope Omar makes his move soon because as good as Dickey and Takahashi have been this year, it's starting to look like some magic is starting to wear off on that front, especially with Takahashi.

Cliff Lee Watch: Reds and Rangers Into It

In an article published late last night for MLB.com, here, T.R. Sullivan reports that the Rangers and Mariners are having discussions centered around Cliff Lee.  In the article Sullivan throws around names like Justin Smoak, Chris Davis, Derrek Holland, Blake Beavan and Jarrod Saltalamacchia as potential trade pieces that the Rangers could use to get Lee. 

Smoak and Chris Davis are two major league ready bats, with Davis having the bigger power potential but being the more inconsistent of the two, which is why he's not with the big club.  (Side note: I do a home run pool every year and the last two I've taken Chris Davis, in the prospect category, only to see him not stick around in the majors long enough to provide me much help).  Saltalamacchia is another guy who just doesn't seem to be what people thought he would be, but maybe it's been the injuries or moving in between organizations that have retarded his progress.  As for Holland and Beaven although they aren't the top pitchers in the Rangers system, they still have nice upside.  So, any deal to me, involving Beaven or Holland, along with Davis and Saltalamacchia would have to be considered by Seattle.  But...

I wonder whether a deal from the Rangers involving Salty, Holland and Davis is a better deal for the Mariners than something like Mejia, Thole and Pagan/Nieuwenhuis/Havens/etc from the Mets.  But it's always difficult to trade within the division, right?  And, Isn't Safeco where power hitters go to die?  I would argue that Thole/Pagan would make more sense in Seattle than a Davis or Salty because of Thole's hitting style, Pagan's speed, and the "small ball" mentality that the Mariners seem to have with Ichiro, Jack Wilson and Figgins.  But the Mariners did recently re-acquire Russell Branyan, so maybe it's not so "small ball" after all...

As for the Reds, rumors have them swapping names with the Mariners about Lee as well.  According to FOXSports Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi, here, some names that might be considered are Juan Francisco, Yonder Alonso along with Matt Maloney and Travis Wood. 

More top prospects being discussed here, and that's what it's going to take to get Lee because he immediately transforms a team into a contender, and if they were one to begin with, it makes them a serious contender.  Especially considering how he's been pitching lately...

So while I think the Mets need to be in on Lee, I wouldn't be miserable if they acquired someone like Ted Lilly instead.  There are many options out there, and I hope Omar does whatever he needs to do to improve the team, without giving up the entire farm.

Rumors For Lee Include Mejia and Pagan

According to this article from the Mariners Blog on The Seattle Times' site, the Mets and Twins seem to be the two teams most likely to land Cliff Lee.  This link was forwarded via rotoworld.com, here, as well as Metsblog.

The most interesting part of the article isn't that the Mets seem to be in on Lee, but instead who they could potentially give up to get him.  In the post, Geoff Baker puts the Twins in the driver's seat with the potential addition of Wilson Ramos, a solid catching prospect in the Twins organization.  But Baker is also quick to point out that the Mets have some serious talent of their own that they could include.  Specifically, Baker mentions rumors that the Mets might include Jenrry Mejia and Angel Pagan in a deal for Lee, which Baker thinks would be enough to get Lee to the Mets.

So the obvious question is, Would you take that deal?

My answer...maybe.

Here are my hang ups, Lee's impending free agency and Beltran's health.  If the Mets were to make a deal like this they would need to make sure they could extend Lee and that Beltran was 100%.  While I really like Mejia and Pagan, if Beltran comes back healthy, I would absolutely consider this deal, assuming you could extend Lee.  But those are two BIG BUTS....

So, I think I would pull the trigger if Lee were extended and Beltran proved to be healthy because to me Cliff Lee and Carlos Beltran are better than Jenrry Mejia and Angel Pagan.  But, like I said before, I would need to see a healthy Beltran and I would need to see an extended Lee, and I don't think both of those chips can realisitically fall into place...

Would you make the deal?

Mets Pitchers Chime in on Trade Deadline, Mejia Demotion

In this article for the New York Post, written by Dan Martin, "Mets fans aren't the only ones clamoring at the prospects of the team trading for a top of the line starter like Seattle's Cliff Lee or Houston's Roy Oswalt."

In the article Martin goes on to quote Pelfrey, Santana and K-Rod as all saying that improving the team's pitching with either Oswalt or Lee would definitely be a welcome addition and would help the team make a push for the post-season.  Although, it is important to note that the players were also careful to mention that they feel they can win with the team's pitching as is, BUT, cannot deny that an improvement would be a good thing for the team's chances.

Also in the article K-Rod is quoted as saying he isn't a fan of the Mets sending Mejia down to the minors.  His concern seems to be it being "tough to prepare when you don't know if you have to get one or two outs in the eighth. It's a lot easier when you know which guy is gonna be in front of you and who's in what role."

Overall I think the Mets pitchers quoted in this article about the possibility of adding a top starter were honest and respectful in their answers.  Yes, the team could absolutely use another top-starter, but at the same time they did a good job of acknowledging that the team can win as currently constructed.

BUT...

K-Rod should be less worried about who is pitching before him and should be more concerned about NOT making every game a nail-biter.  Lately, he's made EVERY game a little too exciting for my taste.  Maybe that's because he's too concerned with who is pitching the eighth to prepare himself properly for the ninth...

Maine, Carmona and Mets Pitching

According to Adam Rubin, here, John Maine did not feel right after his rehab start in Buffalo.  This will cause the Mets to "re-evaluate" their plans with John Maine.  I think this is basically what everyone else had expected, that the Mets would find a way to not have to activate Maine.  The rotation has been good, the bullpen has been pretty good and it's hard to deny that the team has been better since guys like Maine, Perez and Cashstealo have not been around. 

But some think, myself included, that the Mets can find ways to improve their pitching.  And one option, as reported by Buster Olney in this blog post, is Fausto Carmona.  As good as Dickey and Takahashi have been, there are better options out there and Carmona is definitely one of them.  And I would argue after the way Westbrook pitched against the Mets during the week, and considering the prices of both Oswalt and Lee, that Carmona may be the best fit for the Mets. 

Carmona is a guy I have always liked, BUT, I have liked his upside in a similar way to the way I liked Ollie Perez' upside, so take that for what it's worth.  It does seem, however, that Carmona has turned his control issues around and has proven to be a quality starter again this season, which is especially impressive considering how bad the Indians have been this year.  Another interesting bonus to Carmona is that he's under contract, at reasonable prices, for the next few years.

For now, the rotation is fine as it is, BUT if the Mets want to win the division they should make a move.  And whoever they acquire, hopefully will allow either Takahashi or Dickey to move to the bullpen and therefore strengthening both the rotation and the bullpen.

Regardless, this is a good Mets team, much better than last year.  And at some point a move will be made to try to push them over the edge, and when it does, the rest of the NL should watch out...

Olney Discusses Starting Pitching Trade Options For Mets

In an article for ESPN.com, discovered via Metsblog.com, Buster Olney talks about the Mets options as buyers looking for starting pitcher, in this year's buyer's market.

Olney says that the Mets are not thrilled with the idea of trading for Oswalt because of the high price tag, in both talent and money.  Olney also thinks that while the Mets like Lee, they may not match up as well with Seattle as other teams (he mentions the Indians) who have catching prospects, a need position for the Mariners.

Obviously, I would love the Mets acquiring either Lee or Oswalt.  I think that would change the division race a ton...

According to Olney that leaves the Mets bidding for the services of Jake Westbrook, Ben Sheets and Fausto Carmona, although Olney warns that the Mets may be weary of Carmona's past issues.

To me, Sheets should be off the board for two reasons.  One, the A's are in contention and just added Connor Jackson in an effort to compete, so until they fall out of it, I would assume Sheets is staying put.  My other issue with acquiring Sheets is that the Mets SHOULD have just signed him in the off-season.  Now, if they trade for him, not only are they paying the rest of his salary, but they are giving up prospects to do it.  That would be a tough pill for me to swallow considering they could have had Sheets in the off-season if they just paid up.

Carmona and Westbrook, however, are interesting options.  When they were at their best, they were great.  But Westbrook had Tommy John surgery and is still getting back to where he was, while Carmona is recovering from two terrible seasons (but pitching very well this season).

Westbrook is making $11 million this year and will be a free agent after the season.  Carmona, however, will make about $5 million this year, $6 million next year and has affordable club options through 2014.  This makes the decision all the more interesting because of the issue of Carmona's potential value against his club options.  At his best, Carmona is worth more than $6 million, but at his worst, he's another Ollie Perez.

With the way the Mets have been playing this trade deadline could be very interesting.  While I would want the team to go out and get another stud pitcher, I still think they can compete with the way the team is currently constructed (sans Cashstealo and Perez).  So, for me, it's going to come down to asking prices.  If Carmona, Westbrook or Sheets can be had reasonably cheap, then I would go for it.  But, if clubs are asking a lot and it won't be much of a jump for Lee or Oswalt, then I think it's a no-brainer...

Either way, I agree with Olney.  The Mets will be active, and should be able to get someone good, around the trade deadline this year...

Mets Looking Into Lee, Should Make BEST Move

According to Matt Cerrone of Metsblog, here, the Mets and Mariners are talking Cliff Lee.  Cerrone says the Mets and Mariners are talking "quite a lot" about Lee, but the Mariners seem intent on getting Jon Niese back in any deal.  Cerrone also states that people within the Mets organization think they have the prospects to get Lee, but Omar looks like he's not willing to include Niese in that deal.

I agree with Omar.  Obviously, I would want Lee too, but not at the cost of Niese.  If the Mets were to obtain Lee without giving up Niese, they would be looking at a rotation that includes at least 3 lefties, which would be a nice thing to be able to roll out in a series against the Phillies and Braves, who both have some heavy-hitting lefties (Utley, Howard, Ibanez-Philly and Heyward, McCann - Braves).  That would be a nice rotation and would really put the Mets in a position to do some damage down the stretch, especially considering the success that Lee had with the Phillies last season after the trade deadline.  

I am interested in exactly how much the Mets would have to give up to get Lee and then, on top of that, how much they would need to sign him for in the offseason.  Because IF the report that Oswalt would be willing to come to NY is true, then I think moving for Oswalt might be the better deal.  It seems like the prospect return for Oswalt will not be as much as the return for Lee, because of the report that the Astros are looking more for salary relief.  So, to me, if the Mets have the choice of Lee, without an extention or getting Oswalt for another 3 years at $10 million each at a lesser price to your farm system, then I would do what allows you to keep your more valuable asset, prospects.

Either way, Lee or Oswalt would be a great addition to the Mets.  And I don't think the gap between these two pitchers is big enough to warrant paying a heavier price for one over the another.  Both players have pitched in World Series and both have the ability to shut teams down.  The Mets could use another big time pitcher in their rotation, and either player would be an upgrade.  I just hope they make the move that gets them the most, while giving up the least...