In the top of the ninth in last night's game the Mets had Cashstealo on first with no outs against Billy Wagner, with Chris Carter due to bat. Jerry Manuel decided to try to bunt Cashstealo over the second (not a bad idea), and in doing so decided to replace Carter with GMJ to get that job done because Carter does not have a ton of bunting experience, and grounded into a DP earlier in the game.
THIS WAS AN OK MOVE...I would have rather used Alex Cora, who is a better bunter to do this, but Jerry seems to be obsessed with righty/lefty match ups. I personally don't think it's any harder to BUNT against a lefty pitcher if you are a left-handed hitter...it doesn't matter, especially if the bunter is good, so why wouldn't Jerry use his better bunter Cora to get the job done. So, Jerry was over thinking, as per usual, but GMJ did eventually get the bunt down, so it wasn't terrible...
But before GMJ eventually executed the bunt, Wagner uncorked a wild pitch that allowed Cashstealo to move to second with no outs. This changes the situation COMPLETELY. Now Jerry has options. He has three chances to try to drive in one of the "faster runners on the team" (I don't think he is very fast anymore but still...) with a single to the outfield or he can bunt the runner to third and a sac fly/wild pitch/suicide squeeze/ground out can drive in the run...
Now, before I get to what I would have done. Let's consider this...
In a Metsblog "Essential Jerry" article, post game Jerry seemed unwilling to let GMJ hit because he had been struggling recently. Taking that into consideration along with another article linked to Metsblog, here, the author of NY Sports Dog talks about the run expectancy numbers with a runner on second and no out versus a runner on third and one out. According to Sports Dog, there is a higher run expectancy with a runner on second and no out...which I agree with.
So considering those things, the right move would have been pinch hitting mid-at bat for GMJ with Barajas...but since he has a stomach flu that wasn't an option. Cora wasn't a consideration because of Wagner being a lefty...so the only REAL option beside bunting was letting GMJ hit, despite Jerry not liking the way he'd been swinging. If Jerry let GMJ hit everyone might be killing GMJ for stinking (because chances are he wouldn't have delivered) today instead of Wright for not driving in the run, which to me was the bigger problem...
Now for what I would have done...
Exactly what Jerry did.
While I understand the argument for letting GMJ swing away, I wouldn't have done it either. All you needed to take the lead was a pop fly to the outfield, with one of your best players, DAVID WRIGHT on deck. And, because Wagner had just thrown a wild pitch, there's also the consideration that having a runner on third puts pressure on the defense and brings the infield in making hits easier as well as allowing errors, passed balls, wild pitches, etc. to be costly. It didn't work, but it wasn't the WRONG move per say. I don't think they lost the game because of bunting. They lost the game because of Wright and Davis' inability to drive the run in from third. Also, the error in the ninth from Wright didn't help.
While I am usually the first person to want Jerry out of town, you cannot blame him for last night. I think the blame falls on Wright and Davis. GJerry put his team in a position to win taking into account the options he had available to him and neither Wright nor Davis executed, bottom line.
So, while I think Jerry could have done things a little differently, I don't think I can kill him for the ninth inning approach...
At least not today...
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