Wednesday, February 17, 2010

PECOTA Craps On Mets, Projects 79-83 Season Insider has put out it's NL East season preview as projected by PECOTA.  For those who do not know what PECOTA is, the article defines PECOTA as, "Baseball Prospectus' proprietary system that projects player and team performance based on comparison with thousands of player seasons."  According to PECOTA, the Phillies are projected to win the division, followed by the Braves, Marlins, Mets and Nationals, in that order.  The Mets are projected to finish with a record of 79-83...awesome (sarcasm).

Goldstein rains on the Bay Parade as well, in this preview.  Goldstein states, "PECOTA sees a player who is not aging so gracefully, with a .258/.360/.475 line."  Although Goldstein leaves out the specific power prediction for Bay, it's still not good. 

Not all news in the article is bad, however.  In this preview Goldstein does put some positive spin on the 2010 season for the Mets, namely calling 2010 a rebound year for David Wright for whom, "PECOTA projects a strong rebound: a batting line of .303/.401/.516 with 26 home runs."  These numbers are greatly aided by the presence of Reyes and Bay to help Wright carry the offense.

 I would have to agree that Goldstein's general assessment of the Mets is correct: star power, got better in left field but didn't upgrade the rotation.  Somehow, I am confident the Mets will be a better team than 79-83, but that is a fan talking.  I'm hoping the things PECOTA cannot predict will come into play.  Specifically, other major injuries/disspointments within the division, or the potential that Oliver Perez doesn't stink this year.  Because let's be honest, no one can predict Oliver Perez.

But that's why they play the games, right?

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